Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Mortal Ambition Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -3.4 |
| Slimes | 11.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.4% | -3.4 |
| Water Allies | 11.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.6% | +3.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Fire Silvie | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Water Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Wind Cats | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Icebound Slam | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |